Argentina heads toward record exports in 2026 despite a more closed world

Argentina is projected to achieve a record in exports by 2026, surpassing $90 billion, driven by agriculture, energy, and mining sectors. This progress would provide relief to the Economy Ministry and Central Bank, which aim to boost reserves. The key challenge is sustaining competitiveness and accessing markets in a more restrictive global environment.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo may breathe easier with optimistic projections for Argentina's exports in 2026. Recent analyses indicate the country is heading toward a record in external sales, with estimates exceeding $90 billion USD. The main drivers are agriculture, energy, and mining, sectors that have demonstrated resilience amid an increasingly protectionist international context.

This outlook would serve as a balm for public finances. Both the Economy Ministry and the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) face the urgent need to build up international reserves to stabilize the economy. Record exports would help alleviate exchange rate pressures and strengthen the country's external position.

Nevertheless, the challenge no longer lies in boosting production but in maintaining competitiveness. In a more closed world, with rising trade barriers, Argentina must prioritize opening new markets and negotiating deals to facilitate access. Specialized sources emphasize that, despite global hurdles, sectoral diversification positions the country well for this milestone.

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Illustration depicting Argentina's Central Bank president announcing the 2026 reserve accumulation plan, with rising reserve graphs and IMF approval.
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Central bank announces reserve accumulation plan for 2026

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Argentina's Central Bank announced on Monday, December 15, 2025, the first measures of its 2026 economic plan, including updating exchange rate bands according to inflation and a consistent program to accumulate international reserves. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) welcomed these decisions, aligned with its prior recommendations. Meanwhile, the National Treasury purchased 320 million dollars following the announcements.

Argentina's domestic consumption ended 2025 with a slight 1.3% uptick during the Christmas holidays, according to Salvador Femenia, CAME's Press Secretary. Yet, formal employment has lost over 240,000 jobs since Milei's government began, with ongoing challenges in reserves and exchange stability. Experts like Roberto Rojas emphasize the need to accumulate dollars to meet 2026 debt maturities.

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The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) revealed that Argentina obtained a gain of US$ 3.509 million in 2025 thanks to improved terms of trade, driven by a sharper drop in import prices than in exports. Import prices fell 4.5% year-over-year, while export prices declined only 0.6%, raising the index by 4%. This evolution contributed to a trade surplus of US$ 11.286 million.

South Korea's exports reached a record $709.7 billion in 2025, surpassing the $700 billion mark for the first time. The surge was driven by strong semiconductor demand, leading to the largest trade surplus since 2017 at $78 billion. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan highlighted the economy's resilience amid global challenges.

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Argentina's industrial capacity utilization dropped to 57.7% in November 2025, the lowest since March, according to INDEC data. The textile sector plummeted to a historic 29.2%, with business owners warning of mass closures and job losses due to trade openness and lack of internal demand.

Argentina's country risk, as measured by JP Morgan, closed on Monday, January 26, 2026, at 513 basis points, its lowest level since mid-2018. This 2.5% drop from Friday stems from the Central Bank's reserve accumulation exceeding US$1 billion in January. Markets view these developments as signs of improved financial solvency.

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Argentina's country risk indicator dropped to 494 basis points on January 27, 2026, its lowest level since May 2018, driven by rising sovereign bonds and the central bank's reserve accumulation. This decline signals growing investor optimism about the country's fiscal solvency. International reserves approach 46 billion dollars after daily net purchases.

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