日本政府已上调截至明年3月财政年度的经济预测，预计由于大规模刺激计划提振消费和资本支出，明年增长将加速。周三内阁批准的最新预测预计本财政年度增长1.1%。2026财年增长预计为1.3%。
日本政府于12月25日周三批准了修订后的经济预测，这是高市早苗首相政府上任后的首次此类预测。本财政年度（截至2026年3月）的增长前景从8月份估计的0.7%上调至1.1%，原因是美国关税的影响小于预期。
2026财年增长预计加速至1.3%，得益于强劲的消费和资本支出抵消了疲软的海外需求。消费预计增长1.3%，与本年度持平，受税收减免和通胀缓和支持。资本支出预计增长2.8%，高于本年度估计的1.9%，得益于危机管理和增长领域（如基础设施、人工智能和半导体芯片）投资的补贴和税收优惠。
政府11月宣布的21.3万亿日元（1367亿美元）刺激计划包括向有子女家庭发放补贴和降低公用事业账单补贴，旨在缓解家庭生活成本上升，同时促进关键投资。这些预测将用于制定明年财政年度国家预算计划，定于周五最终敲定。扩张性财政政策引发市场对债务供应的担忧，推动政府债券收益率上升。
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The Japanese government approved an 8.56 trillion yen stopgap budget on March 27 to fund operations for the first 11 days of fiscal 2026 starting April 1, due to stalled upper house deliberations on the main 122.31 trillion yen budget passed by the lower house earlier this month. This is the first such provisional measure in 11 years, backed by ruling and main opposition parties, and expected to pass parliament on March 30.
Japan's House of Representatives passed the fiscal 2026 budget proposal on March 14, supported by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party's majority, sending it to the House of Councillors. The budget totals a record 122.3 trillion yen, drawing criticism from opposition parties over the short deliberation time. The ruling coalition aims for passage by the fiscal year-end despite uncertainties in the upper house.
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Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Friday that Japan's initial budget for defense spending and related costs in fiscal 2026 totals about 10.6 trillion yen ($66.5 billion), roughly 1.9 percent of its 2022 gross domestic product or around 1.5 percent using projected fiscal 2026 GDP. Japan aims to raise spending to 2 percent of GDP by fiscal 2027.