财政政策
Rupiah nears Rp 17,000 per US dollar amid global pressures
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The rupiah exchange rate weakened toward Rp 17,000 per US dollar on January 21, 2026, driven by global and domestic pressures. Economist Josua Pardede stressed the need for fiscal policy certainty to restore market confidence. Meanwhile, the IHSG opened lower amid rising external risks.
Former Economy Minister Hernán Lacunza praised improvements in public accounts for 2024 and 2025 but warned that by the end of 2025, the fiscal situation lacks room for additional maneuvers. His analysis shows an official surplus of 0.2% of GDP, though adjustments for interest and inflation reveal larger deficits. Lacunza stressed that the end of the financial normalization process will demand greater savings efforts.
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中国周二公布了一项综合政策组合,利用财政和金融协同来提振消费并激发私人投资,进一步点燃国内需求引擎。专家认为,此举聚焦私人投资和消费支出两大关键领域,通过加强政策支持发出积极信号。
随着中国领导层准备为明年设定经济议程,分析师预计北京将主要维持今年的政策基调,但可能容忍略低的增长目标。增长目标‘约5%’可能调整为4.5%至5%之间。领导层正为定调会议做准备。
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The Joint Budget Committee approved the 2026 Budget Guidelines Law on Wednesday (3), requiring the government to pay 65% of parliamentary amendments before the electoral period. The text also authorizes the Executive to target the floor of the fiscal target to avoid expense freezes in an election year. The plenary vote is scheduled for Thursday (4).
The federal government updated the 2025 budget expense containment to R$ 7.7 billion, a R$ 4.4 billion reduction from the previous projection of R$ 12.1 billion. The measure, disclosed in the 5th bimonthly Revenue and Primary Expenses Assessment Report (RARDP) on November 21, aims to meet the zero deficit fiscal target. The rise in state-owned companies' deficit, driven by Correios, will require an additional R$ 3 billion Treasury contribution.
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The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) warned that net tax revenue in 2025 will be 8.3 trillion pesos below the DIAN's target. In its November report, Carf reviewed fiscal projections with data up to October, noting primary spending exceeding forecasts. This creates budgetary pressures that could extend into 2026.
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