菲律宾债务偿还占政府收入近一半

菲律宾国家政府债务从2022年的₱12.79万亿上升至2025年的₱16.75万亿,增长速度快于经济。2024年和2025年,政府收入的近48%至51%用于债务偿还,限制了教育、卫生和灾害准备资金。

从2022年至2025年,国家政府债务年均增长超过9%,超过经济年增长5%至6%。这加重了相对于国家还款能力的债务负担。2023年,总债务偿还达到1.6万亿比索,包括6100亿比索利息和9400亿比索本金。2024年上升至2.0万亿比索,利息6700亿比索,2025年保持该水平,年利息接近7000亿比索。因此,利息支付现在占用政府收入每六比索中的一比索。债务超过80%为长期债务,再融资风险低。然而,延长期限导致未来预算僵化。预测显示,债务偿还将至少持续到2028年保持在收入的40%以上。这种情况源于多年大量借款和收入努力不足。此外,过去三年预算掠夺和错配争议加剧了问题,导致债务增加而未带来增长或服务益处。预算流程的完整性对于未来债务可持续性至关重要,同时需进行收入改革和纪律性支出。

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