Ethiopia's northern Tigray region is preparing for a potential return to armed conflict, as local authorities accuse the federal government of violating the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement through drone strikes and military escalation. The Ethiopian government, in turn, accuses Eritrea of mobilising and funding armed groups within Tigray. Observers fear a possible alliance between Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front against federal forces.
Tigrayan officials claim the federal government has breached the cessation of hostilities by launching drone strikes. Addis Ababa, meanwhile, has voiced concerns over Eritrea’s involvement along the shared border, with the Ethiopian military reportedly calling up reserve forces in response to the rising instability.
Tensions have escalated following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent statements on Ethiopia’s need for direct access to the Red Sea. Earlier this month, Abiy told lawmakers that Ethiopia and the Red Sea “cannot remain separated forever,” alluding to territory lost after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Eritrea’s information minister, Yemane Gebremeskel, dismissed Abiy’s ambitions as a “pathological illusion.” Reports suggest Eritrea has sought rapprochement with Tigray People’s Liberation Front leaders, though it officially denies any alliance.
The previous war, which ended in November 2022, caused thousands of deaths and drew widespread allegations of sexual violence and the use of starvation as a weapon. In the regional capital Mekelle, residents are seeking ways to leave, fearing a return to communications blackouts and travel restrictions from the two-year siege. On January 29, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray after clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in Tselemti, a disputed area between Tigray and Amhara regions. Flights resumed on February 3, but were followed by a drone strike that Tigrayan authorities say killed one person and wounded another; the Ethiopian military has not publicly responded.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has urged all parties to exercise restraint, a call echoed by the European Union and Britain. The British government has advised its citizens against travel to the region. Since taking office in 2018, Abiy Ahmed has aimed to position Ethiopia as a rising global power, though his leadership has been tested by internal conflicts and regional disputes.