菲律宾大学环境科学与气象研究所发出警告:Monterrazas 洪水研究存在局限性

菲律宾大学环境科学与气象研究所(IESM)提醒公众,不要将其洪水模拟研究解读为对宿务2025年“蒂诺”(Tino)台风灾难责任的定论。此前,网红工程师 Slater Young 发布视频,援引该研究声称其负责的 Monterrazas de Cebu 项目并非造成此次导致百余人死亡的洪灾原因。IESM 向 Philstar.com 强调,该分析基于特定的假设和设定的界限。

菲律宾大学环境科学与气象研究所(IESM)针对由 Mayzonee Ligaray 博士领导的环境水文学实验室所开展的洪水模拟研究,向 Philstar.com 发表了声明。IESM 指出,与所有科学研究一样,该分析基于特定的假设、既定的模型边界和特定的研究目标,因此其研究结果必须在上述语境下解读。研究所明确表示,该研究结果“既不认定也不排除任何相关方的责任”。

4月19日,网红工程师、Mont Property Group 旗下 Monterrazas de Cebu 高端山坡项目联合创始人 Slater Young 发布视频,援引菲律宾大学的这项研究作为证据,声称该开发项目并未引发或加剧“蒂诺”台风带来的洪灾。尽管未点名 Young,但 IESM 强调了“在适当的技术范畴内,并结合更广泛的多学科及社区因素来解读科学发现的重要性”。

Ligaray 于4月21日向 Rappler 表示,该研究尚未完成。3月2日在社交媒体上分享的研究结果仅涵盖了六个流域中的两个——瓜达卢佩(Guadalupe)和基纳鲁姆桑(Kinalumsan),其余四个流域的研究尚在进行中。在接受环境媒体 Sustina 采访时,她表示该研究并非环境影响评估,并提到 Monterrazas 的滞洪池“起到了缓冲作用”,但同时也指出,全流域洪水涉及其他分水岭及洪水模型的复杂因素。

菲律宾环境与自然资源部(DENR)在发现该项目违反了其环境合规证书中33项条件中的10项(包括排水系统不足)后,曾暂时叫停了 Monterrazas 的运营。DENR 第7大区办公室随后解除了停工令,解除时间恰逢 Young 发布视频的那个周末。

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