The 30th UN Conference of the Parties (COP30) is set to convene in Belém, Brazil, a decade after the Paris Agreement, amid pessimism over global warming targets. With the 1.5°C goal unattainable and 2°C in doubt, the summit aims to refocus on implementing existing pledges rather than new bold agreements. Brazil's pragmatic hosting approach seeks to navigate fractured diplomacy and logistical challenges.
A decade after the landmark COP21 in Paris, world leaders will gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, the 30th UN climate conference. Current national pledges point to 2.3 to 2.5°C of warming this century, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, pushing oceans, forests, and polar ice sheets toward tipping points. Experts emphasize the need for concrete actions to shift from fossil fuels and mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2030 for poorer nations to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts.
Optimism is scarce. Negotiators anticipate no major multilateral breakthrough like Paris, given the fractured political landscape. Last year's COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded bitterly with wealthier nations offering a finance package far below expectations from developing countries, eroding trust in the process. "The mood towards climate action has turned very sour," says Claudio Angelo at Brazilian NGO Observatório do Clima, citing absent private finance, backtracking on fossil fuel transitions, and undelivered national climate pledges (NDCs).
Geopolitical tensions exacerbate the issues. US President Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, vetoed fossil fuel limits, and on 17 October threatened sanctions that delayed the International Maritime Organization's shipping emissions plan. Economic pressures like slow growth, rising living costs, and populism further hinder policies. "2025 is just a bad year for saving the world," Angelo adds. Europe's role is limited by internal divisions over defense, trade, and energy. Even host Brazil, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has greenlit Amazon roads and oil exploration ahead of elections.
Belém's selection as the first Amazon-hosted COP symbolizes the forests' vulnerability and boosts Indigenous attendance, per the environment ministry. Yet, it's mired in controversy: scarce hotels have spiked prices, forcing attendees into tents or hammocks, while UN accreditation limits—down from eight to two for some organizations—raise fears of sidelining civil society in favor of oil lobbies. "Organisations that had eight accreditations last year got only two this time," notes Carla Cardenas at the Rights and Resources Initiative.
Signs of momentum include confirmed attendance from leaders like UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Brazil's presidency prioritizes implementation over headlines, fostering "coalitions of the willing" among cities, regions, and companies. "We aren't going to see an international decision at COP that will move us forward radically but it can still provide the framework for a lot of positive initiatives," says Thomas Hale at the University of Oxford.