China digs in for trade struggles with dual growth and resilience strategy

After witnessing the effects of a tumultuous trade war with the United States this year, China's top leaders have issued a directive to fortify the domestic economy against persistent or even heightened trade frictions. Analysts see the leadership's language after the central economic work conference as an admission that trade tensions are expected to endure and expand beyond the US, including to partners like the European Union.

Following the central economic work conference, China's leadership has emphasized the need to address trade frictions, with the use of the word “struggles” interpreted by analysts as Beijing's assessment that such tensions will endure and may extend beyond the US to partners like the European Union.

This year, China has endured a tumultuous trade war with the United States, prompting top leaders to issue directives aimed at bolstering the domestic economy's resilience against ongoing or intensified frictions. Analysts note that while “stabilising foreign trade” and “stabilising foreign investment” have been mentioned to varying degrees each year, their importance and urgency for 2026 remain as significant as in 2025. “Although ‘stabilising foreign trade’ and ‘stabilising foreign investment’ have been addressed to varying degrees each year … their importance and urgency [in 2026] remain no less significant than in 2025,” said economists led by Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economists Forum, in a Friday note.

This dual strategy seeks to balance growth with resilience to navigate potential trade challenges. Beijing's assessment reflects a cautious approach to the global trade environment, especially amid lingering effects from the US trade war. Experts view this as a signal that China is gearing up for broader international trade pressures.

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Xi Jinping speaks at China's Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing, with leaders and economic charts on screens.
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China holds central economic conference to plan 2026 priorities

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Chinese leaders convened in Beijing on December 10-11 for the annual Central Economic Work Conference, where Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech reviewing 2025 economic performance, assessing challenges, and outlining 2026 priorities. The meeting emphasized boosting domestic demand, fostering innovation, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up to promote high-quality development.

As China enters the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan, policymakers are prioritizing underlying stability and balance over mere growth rates. Recent measures include targeted fiscal support and incentives for care services. This approach aims to foster sustainable development amid global uncertainties.

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At the World Economic Forum in Davos, world leaders took veiled swipes at the United States, while China framed itself as a defender of the post-war system, analysts say. Western countries are recalibrating their approach to Beijing amid uncertainties from Donald Trump's influence.

China's trade surplus has surpassed the US$1 trillion mark in the first 11 months of the year, yet growth in its official foreign exchange reserves has lagged behind, prompting questions about where the money has gone.

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China is intensifying bilateral diplomacy to ease trade tensions with the EU, offering market access, visa facilitations, and symbolic gestures to select member states. Even as ties with Brussels sour, Beijing courts European governments aggressively. Examples include aircraft orders in France and reopened beef and pork markets for Ireland and Spain.

An editorial calls for Japan to lead in preventing the free trade system from drifting as the United States appears set to relinquish its post-World War II role after 80 years. It warns of risks to financial markets from the Trump administration's aggressive tariffs and advocates expanding the CPTPP.

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A report by UK consultancy WTW identifies ongoing tariff wars and dependence on China as two top emerging risks for the global defence sector. It warns that the defence sector's reliance on Chinese materials and components, particularly rare earths and electronics, presents significant supply chain vulnerability amid geopolitical risks. The findings are based on interviews with five industry executives from Australia, Europe, and North America.

 

 

 

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