China's GDP grows 5 percent in 2025

China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday that the country's gross domestic product grew 5 percent in 2025 to reach 14.02 trillion yuan, meeting the government's target of around 5 percent. Despite a slowdown to a three-year low of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the economy remained steady amid the US trade war.

Kang Yi, commissioner of China's National Bureau of Statistics, said on Monday that the economy withstood multiple pressures to achieve steady growth in 2025, but cautioned that external pressures are intensifying and many long-standing problems and new challenges are affecting development.

The data shows full-year GDP rose 5 percent year-on-year, aligning with the government's target of around 5 percent. However, fourth-quarter growth slowed to 4.5 percent, the lowest in three years, dragged down by domestic headwinds such as soft internal demand. Analysts noted the lopsided growth, with robust exports contrasting weak domestic demand, though the services sector emerged as a bright spot.

Despite the unprecedented US trade war, China's economy stayed on course. Beijing acknowledged persistent issues and new challenges, aiming to bolster the economy in the new five-year plan cycle. The National Bureau of Statistics reported the total GDP at 14.02 trillion yuan for 2025.

Experts expressed concern over the imbalanced expansion but highlighted the services sector's positive role. Beijing is focusing on shoring up growth amid rising external pressures.

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Illustration depicting South Korea's 1% GDP growth in 2025 driven by exports amid construction weakness and Q4 contraction.
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South Korea's economy grows 1 percent in 2025

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South Korea's gross domestic product grew 1 percent in 2025 from the previous year, according to Bank of Korea data, but the fourth quarter saw an unexpected 0.3 percent contraction. Strong exports drove the annual figure despite weakness in construction. This marks half the 2 percent expansion of 2024.

China's government is likely to set a 2026 economic growth target in a range of 4.5% to 5%, according to three briefed sources. If confirmed, this would signal tolerance for some deceleration amid challenges, prioritizing economic rebalancing and stability.

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The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 growth projection for China to 4.5 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from its October forecast, due to eased trade tensions and sustained domestic policy support. China's 2025 growth forecast was also revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 5 percent. The changes reflect stimulus measures and additional policy bank lending for investment.

Hong Kong's finance chief has expressed optimism about the city's economic outlook for 2026, while forecasting 2025 growth to accelerate to 3.2%, surpassing earlier projections. He attributed this positive outlook mainly to anticipated growth in mainland China and Asia, along with interest rate cuts.

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China's retail sales grew by just 1.3 percent in November, missing forecasts and slowing for the sixth straight month. Investment from January to November fell 2.6 percent as the property slump persisted. Officials recognize ongoing challenges and urge more proactive macroeconomic policies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered his 2026 New Year message in Beijing on December 31, 2025, via China Media Group and the internet. He reviewed achievements from 2025 and outlined prospects for high-quality development in 2026.

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The world entered 2026 amid intense upheaval and uncertainty. The year 2025 marked a significant shift in the international economic order that had sustained 80 years of postwar prosperity. Japan, positioned uniquely between the strengthening powers of the United States and China, must leverage its distinct characteristics to build its own strategy.

 

 

 

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