Mexico's heavy vehicle market saw a 31% decline in 2025, described as truly catastrophic by the National Association of Bus, Truck, and Tractor Producers (Anpact). The drop exceeded gloomy forecasts following 2024's record high and affected the entire production chain in the sector. Key factors include deteriorating business expectations and an uncertain economic environment.
Rogelio Arzate, executive president of the Anpact, delivered an alarming overview of Mexico's heavy vehicle market in 2025, noting a 31% contraction in sales. This outcome, worse than the 2020 pandemic slump, cannot be attributed solely to economic variables such as growth rates, exchange rates, or interest levels.
The fallout rippled through manufacturing, autoparts production, distribution, and the legal framework of the automotive industry. In the cargo segment, International led with 17.96% market share, followed by Isuzu (10.01%) and Hino (4.26%). For passenger vehicles, Mercedes-Benz topped with nearly 39%, with Scania (12.66%), Volvo (12.63%), International (11.7%), and Volkswagen (10.27%) rounding out the top five.
Diesel powered 98.19% of sales but also declined by 31%. Arzate pointed to deteriorating expectations among transport firms and companies with own fleets, worsened by reduced gross fixed investment, waning business confidence, cost pressures, and a complex international landscape, including shifts in U.S. trade relations.
Looking to 2026, Anpact forecasts a 10% rise in heavy truck sales, driven by internal market recovery and regulatory certainty, though still below 2024 peaks. The industry calls on the federal government to revise tariffs on used heavy truck imports, highlighting undervaluation, smuggling, and organized crime that undermine competitiveness.
