The Las Vegas Raiders are projected to clinch the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. A projection model gives them a 79.20% chance, while the New York Giants sit at 20.74%. The outcome hinges on results from two key games this Sunday.
The Las Vegas Raiders, sitting at 2-14, have not won since a 20-10 victory over the Tennessee Titans on October 12. They suffered a 34-10 defeat to the New York Giants last weekend, marking their fifth straight double-digit losing streak in back-to-back seasons. A loss or tie against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday would secure the No. 1 pick, only the second time in franchise history after their 2-14 finish in 2006.
The Giants, at 3-13, complicated their own path by beating the Raiders in Week 17. To claim the top spot, New York must lose at home to the Dallas Cowboys, the Raiders must defeat the Chiefs—who have lost five straight and managed just 139 yards in their last game—and the Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Chicago Bears must combine for exactly two wins.
SportsLine's Inside the Lines projection model, which simulates games 10,000 times, predicts a 19-15 Chiefs victory, handing the Raiders the draft position they need. It also forecasts a 30-25 Cowboys win over the Giants, extending New York's losing streak against Dallas to 10 games.
If the Raiders land the pick, they are expected to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, despite signing Geno Smith to an extension. The Giants, with promising rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart (drafted 25th overall last year), might target a defender like Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese.
Las Vegas fans recall the 2007 bust JaMarcus Russell, selected first overall after his Sugar Bowl MVP performance at LSU. Russell appeared in 31 games for the Raiders, throwing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions before his release in 2010.
The Giants have had the No. 1 pick twice before: in 1951, they chose running back Kyle Rote over Y.A. Tittle but later acquired him; in 1965, they drafted Tucker Frederickson instead of stars like Dick Butkus and Joe Namath.
