Brazilian officials lack clarity on whether beef shipments en route to China will count against Beijing's new import quotas announced last week. The volume is small relative to 2025 exports, but the industry fears sales disruptions amid the broader safeguard measures affecting major exporters like Argentina and Australia.
Brazil's Ministry of Commerce stated there is no clarity yet on whether beef in transit to China will be included in the quotas. Herlon Brandão, head of the ministry's statistics department, noted these volumes are a "small" share compared to the 1.5 million metric tons exported to China in 2025, when the country absorbed about half of Brazil's record over 3 million tons of total beef exports.
The quotas are part of China's three-year safeguard measures with 55% tariffs on excess volumes. Brazil's allocation is 1.106 million tons in 2026, rising to 1.128 million in 2027 and 1.151 million in 2028.
Brazil's beef sector expressed concerns. Sindifrigo-Mato Grosso stated: "Chinese authorities have made it clear that the volume will be calculated based on actual entries into the country from January 1, 2026, regardless of previously signed contracts, in-transit shipments, or already shipped products."
Under this rule, Brazil could lose about 350,000 tons from its 2026 quota due to shipments in ports, on ships, or stored. In 2025, China accounted for 53% of exports, generating $8.8 billion. The Ministry of Agriculture provided no immediate comment.
