The Rosario Grain Exchange projects that grain production in the 2025/26 campaign will reach a record 154.8 million tons, 12% above the previous historical high. However, exports will generate only $36.8 billion due to falling international prices. Corn and wheat will lead this production growth.
The Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) released a report projecting a new record in grain production for the 2025/26 campaign, reaching 154.8 million tons (Mt), a 12% increase from the previous record of 141.5 Mt in the 2018/19 season. This advance is due to favorable weather conditions, with a spring that provided necessary soil moisture, breaking a streak of dry and cold years.
In the coarse grains harvest, wheat will record a historical high of 27.7 Mt, accompanied by 5.6 Mt of barley, a "double record" according to the report. For corn, after last year's drop due to the leafhopper plague, an estimated 61 Mt is projected, a 22% year-over-year growth, thanks to planting early varieties with higher yield potential.
Soy, however, will see a 5% reduction to 47 Mt, due to a decrease of 1.4 million hectares shifted to corn and sunflower. The latter will reach 5.5 Mt with 2.7 million hectares, the highest area in the century. Sorghum will fall to 2.4 Mt with a 13% less surface.
Total exports of grains, flours, oils, and biofuels will reach 110 Mt, a historical record and 7.5 Mt more than the previous cycle. Corn will lead with 40 Mt, followed by wheat with 17 Mt, while soy drops to 5.5 Mt from 12.2 Mt. However, the total value of these sales will be $36.8 billion, only $600 million more than the current campaign, as "the fall in international prices of agricultural commodities takes most of the volume effect," the report warns.
For the Central Bank, the dollar supply in the Free Foreign Exchange Market will be $33.6 billion, 8% less than in 2025, due to the advancement of settlements from the temporary elimination of withholdings in September 2025. Revenue from export duties will rise to $4.83 billion, 4% more, with the soy complex contributing $3.67 billion and corn a 32% jump.
This outlook is influenced by the negative start to 2026 for soy, with prices down in Chicago and Rosario on January 2.
