Colombia's central bank may hike its policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.75% at its January 30 meeting, according to analysts surveyed by Anif and Corficolombiana. The move would address 2025 inflation of 5.15% and a 23% minimum wage increase that has boosted inflation expectations. The global context, with steady Fed rates and Brazil's policy, shapes the local outlook.
Colombia's central bank has held its intervention rate at 9.25% for eight months since April 2025, when it cut it by 25 basis points from 9.50%. This stability was upheld in the latest Board vote, with four in favor of holding against two seeking a 50 basis point cut, including Finance Minister Germán Ávila.
Anif's survey of 19 analysts shows eight, including Aval Casa de Bolsa, Asobancaria, and Banco de Occidente, expecting a 50 basis point hike to 9.75% on Friday, January 30. BBVA proposes a larger 100 basis point increase to 10.25%, while Itaú estimates 75 basis points to 10%. In contrast, Banco Agrario and Pontificia Universidad Javeriana anticipate no change, though they recommend at least 25 basis points to 9.50%.
Corficolombiana agrees on a possible 50 basis point rise by a 4-3 majority, citing the minimum wage hike that lifted inflation expectations from 4.5% to 5.9%, the largest monthly jump on record. "It raised the risk of second-round effects, with a rise in 24-month expectations from 3.9% to 4.6%, its largest historical monthly increase," the firm states. Inflation would mark six years above the target range.
Internationally, the Fed's first FOMC meeting will keep rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Jerome Powell affirming policy continuity. Brazil will hold the Selic at 15%, delaying cuts until March. Itaú notes these external factors, plus local 5.15% inflation, could start an upward cycle in Colombia, affecting credit costs, consumption, and investment. Corficolombiana forecasts the rate reaching 11.75% by end-2026.
