An early estimate suggests Europe’s most extreme heatwave killed approximately 20,390 people between 22 and 28 June. Researchers based the figure on temperature and mortality data from prior years. Official counts remain far lower as data collection continues.
Christopher Callahan at Indiana University led the analysis using correlations between heat and excess deaths across Europe from 2015 to 2019. The model attributes 5,210 deaths to France, 4,543 to Germany, 3,163 to Spain and 862 to the UK.
Public Health France reported around 1,000 excess deaths from 24 to 26 June, while the World Health Organization noted more than 1,300 excess deaths across the region by 28 June. These figures rely on incomplete death certificate systems.
Other experts caution the estimate could be high. Some suggest around 15,000 deaths once recent adaptations such as wider air conditioning access are considered. The true toll will take months to confirm.
