The National Association of Public Services and Communications Companies (Andesco) and the Regional Center for Energy Studies (Cree) released a study revealing a 39% probability of a natural gas supply deficit in Colombia by 2026. The report highlights a medium thermal demand scenario that could rise to 58% in 2027, with average volumes of 117 Gbtud and 129 Gbtud respectively. Both organizations warn of the absence of a clear regulatory framework posing risks to the energy sector.
The technical study, focused on the users' perspective, underscores a structural deficit that hinders the development of new regasification infrastructure in the country. Andesco and Cree identified that, beyond the projected deficit, there are 14 liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in the structuring or construction phase. However, market concentration among incumbents could restrict third-party access, worsening supply issues.
Camilo Sánchez, president of Andesco, stressed that gas shortages will become evident from this year onward, along with heavy reliance on imports. "Decisions made in recent years could cost up to $114 billion and jeopardize energy sovereignty," warned Sánchez. Meanwhile, Tomás González, director of Cree, noted that storing gas during low-consumption days is feasible to balance usage and lower deficit risks. González also emphasized the need to implement LNG projects to meet future demand.
Both organizations suggested comparing supply and demand projections, assessing real deviations, and generating at least 1,000 monthly scenarios for the next two years based on historical data. A comprehensive regulatory framework, per the report, would ensure supply security at minimal cost, promote competition in commercialization, prevent market capture by dominant players, speed up new projects, and limit the socialization of underutilized costs. The current regulatory gap has led to delays, overinvestment, and risks of future underutilization.
