The copper price hit US$5.02 per pound on the London Metal Exchange this Wednesday, breaking the US$5 barrier for the first time in nominal terms. This marks the highest nominal historical value and the second highest in real terms since 2011. Experts attribute the rise to energy transition demands and supply constraints.
This Wednesday, copper, Chile's main export product, surged on the London Metal Exchange, closing at US$5.02 per pound, a 1.38% increase from Tuesday. According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), this is the highest nominal level recorded. In October so far, the price has risen 8.67%, and 27.12% in 2025, with an annual average of US$4.385 per pound, the highest on record.
On the New York futures market (Comex), copper rose 0.58% to US$5.20 per pound. In real terms, adjusted by the U.S. CPI, Gustavo Lagos, emeritus professor at the Catholic University, stated that 'the daily value reached is, since the end of World War I, the second highest after 2011's US$5.546 per pound in 2024 currency'.
The rise could affect Chile's public finances. Alejandro Fernández, partner at Gemines Consultores, noted that 'a part of those higher revenues should not be spent and should go to the FEES'. If the price averages US$5 in 2026, it would generate about US$4 billion in additional revenues, equivalent to more than 1% of GDP, though 'the effective result would improve, but it still doesn't give much room to spend'.
Outlooks remain bullish. Cristián Cifuentes, CESCO analyst, emphasized that 'the current copper bull cycle has solid structural fundamentals, linked to production constraints, mining investment pressures, and persistent demand associated with the global energy transition'. Inventories on London and Shanghai exchanges are at historically low levels.
Bank forecasts include Citi's base case of US$12,000 per ton (US$5.44 per pound) in the next 6-12 months, and Goldman Sachs between US$10,000 and US$11,000 per ton in 2026-2027. Lagos predicts an average of US$5 per pound for the next eight years from 2025.