Linux has quietly achieved over 11 percent of the global desktop market share in 2025, according to analysts who factor in underreported data like unknown systems and ChromeOS. This surge comes amid Windows 10's end-of-life and growing dissatisfaction with Microsoft's practices. Factors such as improved gaming support and privacy concerns are driving users toward open-source alternatives.
For years, enthusiasts have predicted the rise of Linux on desktops, and 2025 appears to mark a turning point. ZDNet's Steven Vaughan-Nichols estimates Linux's share at over 11 percent by including StatCounter's "unknown" category at 4.21 percent and ChromeOS at 3.67 percent alongside the reported 3.49 percent for Linux. This calculation builds on growth from 1.5 percent in 2020 to above 4 percent in 2024, reaching about 5 percent in the US by 2025.
Zorin OS exemplifies the momentum, reporting 1 million downloads in just over a month since its release, with 78 percent from Windows users—a 3.5-gigabyte ISO attracting refugees from Microsoft's ecosystem. The end of Windows 10 support in October 2025 has accelerated this shift, leaving many users facing hardware upgrades or fees. A UK survey by Which in September 2025 found 26 percent planning to remain on Windows 10 post-updates, while 6 percent eyed alternatives like Linux. ControlUp estimates 25 percent of Windows machines cannot upgrade to Windows 11 due to hardware restrictions.
Broader data supports the trend. The US Digital Analytics Program shows Linux at 5.8 percent of desktop sessions, plus 1.7 percent from ChromeOS and 15.8 percent from Android, totaling 23.3 percent Linux-based visits. Lansweeper's scan of 15 million consumer PCs puts Linux at just over 6 percent. Globally, Android commands 72.55 percent of the mobile market, underscoring Linux's dominance beyond desktops.
Drivers include Microsoft's shift toward cloud services like Microsoft 365 and AI, neglecting Windows updates, alongside privacy worries—such as EU concerns over US-influenced data handling. Gaming has improved via Steam and Proton, making Linux viable for more users. In the US, Linux surpassed 5 percent market share, per social media reports, while Steam's October 2025 survey showed 3.05 percent Linux gamers, up 0.41 percent.
Challenges persist, like hardware driver issues, but user-friendly distributions and community support are easing adoption. Analysts predict further growth, potentially to 7 percent in the US by 2027, as open-source appeals to those seeking control and cost savings.