Much of South Africa is forecast to see above-normal rainfall and fewer hot days in 2026, driven by weak La Niña conditions. This shift could benefit agriculture but heightens flood risks in interior provinces. Recent wet weather has already caused deaths and damage in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
South Africa's interior provinces are set for a wetter start to 2026, with climate models from the South African Weather Service indicating weak La Niña conditions persisting through the summer. This pattern, where Pacific Ocean waters cool slightly, typically brings increased rainfall and milder daytime temperatures to regions like Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, and parts of North West and Free State.
Recent months have previewed this trend, with wetter and cooler weather leading to flooding in KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, hailstorms in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo. At least four people died from flooding in KwaZulu-Natal last week, damaging over 100 houses, while one death occurred in Gauteng's Olievenhoutbosch due to heavy rain. These events underscore the risks ahead.
Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis from Vox Weather emphasized that such forecasts 'tilt the odds' toward wetter conditions rather than guaranteeing them. Professor Willem Landman, a climate scientist at the University of Pretoria, added that seasonal predictions differ from daily ones and noted no El Niño signal, avoiding drought threats for early 2026. Climate scientist Kobus Olivier predicted the weak La Niña would last only two months, normalizing by February.
Provincial outlooks vary: Gauteng faces frequent thunderstorms and cooler highs; Limpopo and Mpumalanga see enhanced rain beneficial for farming but with flooding concerns; KwaZulu-Natal's coast and Midlands are at higher flood risk. In contrast, the Western Cape may experience drier, warmer conditions, though predictability is lower there.
Despite short-term cooling from clouds and rain, long-term warming persists—2024 was the hottest year on record. Landman warned, 'You can’t judge climate trends by a few wet weeks.' Above-normal rain raises flash flood dangers in urban and informal areas with poor drainage. Later in 2026, a possible weak El Niño could bring drier weather, but experts urge caution in interpretations.
