The Real Estate Economic Institute predicts a 2.2% increase in new condominium supply in the Tokyo metropolitan area for 2026 compared to the previous year. It expects 23,000 units across Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba prefectures, with notable growth in western Tokyo and Chiba. Meanwhile, supply in central Tokyo is projected to decline.
The Real Estate Economic Institute forecasts that the supply of new condominiums in the Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba prefectures will reach 23,000 units in 2026, marking a 2.2% rise from the prior year. The growth is driven particularly by western Tokyo, excluding the central districts, where releases are expected to jump 33.3% to 4,000 units, and Chiba Prefecture, with a 16.7% increase to 3,500 units. These figures stem from high-rise developments in Hachioji, western Tokyo, and Funabashi, Chiba.
In contrast, central Tokyo faces challenges in land acquisition, leading to a projected 5.9% drop in supply to 8,000 units. With many high-end properties in this area, the reduction could temper the overall average price increases across the metropolitan region. For context, the average price of new condos in the Tokyo area from January to November 2025 stood at ¥94.18 million, up 18% from the same period in 2024.
This outlook highlights ongoing urban housing dynamics and potential market stabilization amid persistent demand.
