Multiple polls indicate that Japan's ruling LDP-JIP coalition is poised to secure over 300 seats in Sunday's lower house election, potentially achieving a two-thirds majority. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's high approval ratings are boosting LDP candidates in key races. The opposition Centrist Reform Alliance faces significant losses.
Ahead of Japan's lower house election on February 9, 2026, three media polls project the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) securing well over half of the 465 seats, with the LDP-Japan Innovation Party (JIP) coalition potentially exceeding 300 seats for a two-thirds majority. A Yomiuri Shimbun survey shows LDP leads in single-seat constituencies rising by 18 since the campaign's early days, with likely wins increasing from 129 to 147. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visits to battleground areas, such as Okayama Constituency No. 4 and Nagano No. 2, have helped candidates pull ahead in previously tight races.
Takaichi has dominated social media, posting 65 times on X from January 27 to Thursday, averaging 5,200 reposts each—outpacing rivals, per a Jiji Press analysis using Brandwatch. The LDP strategy leans heavily on her popularity, planning final-day stops in contested Tokyo districts. However, forecasted snow raises concerns over voter turnout; the party urges early voting, with Takaichi casting an absentee ballot and posting on X to encourage participation.
The election stems partly from Takaichi's January dissolution of the house, a gamble prompted by China's backlash to her November 7, 2025, Budget Committee remarks on a Taiwan contingency posing a survival threat to Japan under security laws. Beijing responded with tourist restrictions, renewed rare earth export limits, Senkaku Islands patrols, and radar locks on Japanese jets. A 2024 government survey shows 84% of Japanese lack affinity for China, fueling support for Takaichi's stance.
Analysts view a landslide LDP win as optimal for the yen and bonds, avoiding negotiations with opposition parties pushing deeper tax cuts and spending. U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Takaichi on Thursday, scheduling a March 19 White House meeting, though he expressed concerns over Japan-China tensions in a November call.
