Asya humarap sa lumalangang epekto ng energy crisis dahil sa Iran war

Mga pamahalaan sa Asya, pinakamalaking importer ng langis, ay nagmamadali para sa alternatibong supply upang protektahan ang ekonomiya mula sa energy crisis na dulot ng Iran war. Ang Asian Development Bank ay nagbaba ng growth forecast para sa developing Asia sa 4.7% ngayong taon. Oil imports sa rehiyon ay bumagsak ng 30% sa Abril.

Ang energy crisis, na nagsimula noong huling bahagi ng Pebrero dahil sa Iran war, ay nagdulot ng malapit na pagsara ng Strait of Hormuz, na nagdadala ng isang limang bahagi ng global oil at gas supplies. Ayon sa Kpler data, oil imports sa Asya—na tumatanggap ng 85% ng Gulf crude—ay bumagsak ng 30% sa Abril, pinakamababa mula Oktubre 2015.

Ang Asian Development Bank ay nagbaba ng growth forecast sa 4.7% ngayong taon at 4.8% sa 2027, mula 5.1% pareho dati, at nagtaas ng inflation outlook sa 5.2%. Mga pamahalaan, lalo na sa South Asia, ay gumagastos ng bilyunes sa subsidies at duty waivers. “The first line of defense … is that the governments decided to absorb the initial shock by either providing subsidies or cutting excise duties on fuel products,” sinabi ni Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch ng S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Emerging market currencies tulad ng Philippine peso, Indian rupee, at Indonesian rupiah ay tumama ng record lows laban sa dollar. Ang peso ay bumagsak ng higit 5% mula simula ng war. China ay naging pinakamataas na performer sa yuan, na tumaas ng 0.8%, habang Japan ay nag-intervene para sa yen.

South Asian economies tulad ng Pakistan, Bangladesh, at Sri Lanka ang pinaka-vulnerable, ayon sa S&P. Pakistan ay nag-issue ng LNG tenders sa $18.88 per million British thermal unit, mas mataas kaysa pre-war prices. Japan nagsimula ng release ng 36 million barrels mula stockpiles noong May 1.

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Illustration of Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade during war, driving up global oil and gas prices and threatening Europe's energy supply.
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War in Iran causes surge in energy prices

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On the fifth day of the war in Iran, Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil and gas prices, affecting the global economy. European gas prices rose from 32 to 49 euros per MWh, while Brent crude climbed from 72 to 82 dollars per barrel. Europe, vulnerable due to its reliance on imports, faces heightened risks if the conflict drags on.

Two weeks into Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel and natural gas costs have risen, accelerating adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, analysts say. Asia, the primary recipient of fuels through the strait, faces acute vulnerability.

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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

US importers have cut orders from Hong Kong firms and shifted to short-term contracts amid a global oil crisis triggered by war in the Middle East. Business leaders warn of eroding profit margins and strained liquidity, urging the government to bolster ties with Central Asia and Asean nations to diversify market risks. Executive Council member Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung said the situation will impact SMEs' cash flow.

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Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran—detailed in prior coverage—that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and escalated Middle East tensions with oil and gold surges, Indonesian businesses are implementing short-term risk mitigations amid rising costs, while Bank Indonesia monitors inflation risks.

Oil prices have surged past $90 a barrel a week after the US and Israel launched major attacks on Iran, escalating into a Middle East war. The conflict has stranded oil shipments in the Persian Gulf and damaged key facilities, disrupting supplies. Consumers globally face higher gasoline and diesel costs as a result.

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Crude oil prices have climbed above $110 per barrel—up 20% in days and over 50% since the war began—as the US-Israel conflict with Iran persists into its second week, fueling fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Asian markets tumbled, while US President Donald Trump called the spike a 'necessary sacrifice' for security.

 

 

 

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