伊朗战争引发能源危机,亚洲面临冲击加剧

作为全球最大的石油进口地区,亚洲各国政府正在寻求替代方案,以保护本国经济免受伊朗战争引发的能源危机影响。亚洲开发银行将发展中亚洲地区的今年经济增长预期下调至4.7%。4月份,该地区的石油进口量骤降30%。

由2月底伊朗战争引发的能源危机导致霍尔木兹海峡几近关闭,而该海峡是全球五分之一石油和天然气供应的咽喉要道。Kpler数据显示,作为海湾地区原油运输的主要目的地,亚洲4月份的石油进口量骤降30%,跌至2015年10月以来的最低水平。

亚洲开发银行将发展中亚洲及太平洋地区的今年经济增长预期从此前预测的5.1%下调至4.7%,并预计2027年增长率为4.8%,同时将通胀预期上调至5.2%。各国政府,尤其是南亚国家的政府,正投入数十亿美元用于补贴和减免进口关税。标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的汉娜·卢奇尼卡娃-肖尔什(Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch)表示:“政府的首要防御措施是决定通过提供补贴或削减燃油产品的消费税来吸收最初的冲击。”

菲律宾比索、印度卢比和印尼盾等亚洲新兴市场货币兑美元汇率均创下历史新低。自战争爆发以来,菲律宾比索已贬值超过5%。中国人民币兑美元上涨0.8%,成为区域内表现最好的货币,日本则进行了干预,使日元汇率上升至战前水平的0.4%以上。

根据标普全球市场财智的分析,包括巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和斯里兰卡在内的南亚经济体最为脆弱。巴基斯坦发布了自2023年以来的首个液化天然气招标,价格为每百万英热单位18.88美元,远高于战前的市场价格。5月1日,日本开始从战略储备中释放3600万桶石油。

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