Ethiopia's January 2024 memorandum with Somaliland has ignited a geopolitical contest in the Horn of Africa over sea access. The deal aims to reduce Ethiopia's dependence on Djibouti but is viewed by Somalia as a violation of its sovereignty. The dispute has drawn in Turkey, Gulf states, and global powers, escalating regional tensions.
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea's independence in 1993. Today, 95 percent of its imports and exports pass through Djibouti, leaving Addis Ababa exposed to political and logistical risks. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized this last year, stating, “A country of more than 120 million people cannot be left without access to the sea.”
In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland for a 50-year lease of a 20 km coastal strip, offering recognition in return. Somaliland saw it as a path to legitimacy, but Mogadishu's federal government viewed it as an attack on territorial integrity. One Somali diplomat remarked privately, “This is not a port deal. This is a question of our existence as a nation.”
In response, Somalia quickly inked a 10-year defense and economic pact with Turkey. The deal grants Ankara rights to patrol Somali waters, build its navy, and secure ports, bolstering Turkey's military base and training mission in Mogadishu. This forms a Somalia-Turkey-Qatar-Egypt axis, countering Ethiopia's links with the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Gulf rivalries sharpen the divide: the UAE invests in Somaliland and Ethiopian logistics, Qatar funds Mogadishu, Saudi Arabia wavers, and Egypt backs Somalia amid its Nile dispute with Ethiopia. The US focuses on countering al-Shabab, with a Western advisor noting, “You can’t fight al-Shabab if the state itself is under threat.” China eyes the region through its Belt and Road Initiative, with a base in Djibouti.
Somalia's fragility persists, with al-Shabab controlling rural areas and political divisions rife. A Somali analyst in Mogadishu said, “We are walking a fine line. If we lean too much on one side, we risk losing sovereignty. If we lean too little, we risk being swallowed.” Experts foresee scenarios like military standoffs, proxy escalations, or renegotiations, redrawing the Horn's geopolitical map.