Cuba is grappling with an acute economic crisis reminiscent of the 1990s 'Special Period,' marked by fuel shortages and paralyzed transportation. Authorities and social media voices are invoking the ghost of the 'zero option,' where imports could drop to zero. Government measures focus on medium- and long-term solutions, while the immediate situation remains uncertain.
The Caribbean island was already enduring dramatic deterioration before January 29, 2026: blackouts, insufficient or expensive transportation, and inflation. Tourism has not recovered, with visitors not exceeding half of pre-COVID levels, and massive hotels remain empty. The economy produces little that is exportable, except for some medicines, tobacco, rum, and minerals; domestically, it extracts sulfur-laden oil and grows part of its basic food supply, though sugar is imported.
The most dynamic sector involves import ventures and retail or service businesses for those who can afford them with foreign currency, ranging from large para-state corporations to family networks in informal markets like Havana's 'Cuevita.' Public health services are deteriorating due to lack of supplies and personnel, ridiculous salaries, and a critical shortage of medicines, often bought on the informal market.
Material degradation is compounded by the erosion of social bonds: culture is in crisis, much of the intelligentsia has emigrated, solidarities are fading, and prison-yard morality often prevails. There is no access to foreign credit due to the US embargo and Cuba's long history of unpaid debts. Then, Donald Trump declares Cuba in emergency status as an 'unusual threat to national security,' adding sanctions on countries exporting hydrocarbons to the island, which is accused of hosting Russian and Chinese spy bases.
Over the past two weeks, transportation has tended toward zero: urban buses are not running, and fuel is not sold to private drivers. Cooking gas has not been sold for several months, and there is an official alert on aviation fuel (JET A1 NOT AVBL), halting flights from Canada and Russia—Cuba's main tourist markets—with planes arriving empty to repatriate nationals. Mexico is no longer sending oil, Russia does so clandestinely due to the war in Ukraine, and China is a net importer.
Many compare this to 'option 0.2,' akin to the Special Period but more abrupt and without pre-elaborated strategies. In the 1990s, functional infrastructures and moral reserves existed; today, generations born in the '90s and later dominate daily life with a different morality. A neighbor comments: 'Fidel didn’t make promises; he knew what there really was; now he’s no longer here.' The president and ministers speak mainly of medium- and long-term measures, recalling Keynes's words: 'in the long run we will all be dead.'
Historically, Cuba has faced US naval blockades in 1898 and 1962. The Cuban people, poor and vulnerable, are the victims of class confrontations between powerful establishments on both sides of the Florida Straits.
