Analis Jefferies peringatkan risiko belanja AI bagi perusahaan teknologi raksasa

Raksasa teknologi global meningkatkan investasi AI ke level rekor dibandingkan dengan arus kas operasi, yang membebani keuangan mereka. Analis Jefferies, Chris Wood, memperingatkan bahwa monetisasi masih belum pasti meskipun terjadi ledakan belanja. Ia memperingatkan bahwa sektor ini mungkin akan menyerupai industri padat modal di tengah persaingan yang semakin ketat.

Meningkatnya investasi AI oleh perusahaan-perusahaan seperti Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, dan Amazon mendorong belanja modal (capex) ke level yang mendekati rekor tertinggi dibandingkan dengan arus kas operasi. Belanja agresif ini telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran mengenai profitabilitas, karena imbal hasil masih sulit diraih oleh para penyedia layanan hyperscale ini. Chris Wood dari Jefferies menyoroti beban keuangan tersebut dalam analisisnya, dengan mencatat tanda-tanda awal tekanan pada arus kas. Ledakan belanja AI telah memicu perdebatan mengenai keberlanjutannya. Para analis menunjukkan bahwa tantangan monetisasi tetap ada bahkan saat persaingan memanas di area seperti pangsa pasar ChatGPT versus Gemini. Pandangan Wood menunjukkan bahwa sektor AI dapat berkembang seperti industri padat modal lainnya, dengan jalur profitabilitas yang tidak pasti. Panduan capex 2026 dari perusahaan teknologi besar menggarisbawahi skala komitmen mereka, termasuk biaya investasi AI Microsoft dan angka belanja Amazon. Meta menghadapi kekhawatiran serupa, sementara Alphabet memberikan estimasi capex ke depan. Tren ini telah memicu pertanyaan tentang apakah gelembung AI sedang terbentuk.

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