Elon Musk forecasted on the 'Moonshots with Peter Diamandis' podcast that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robots will outperform the world's best human surgeons by 2029, potentially revolutionizing healthcare amid doctor shortages and AI's rapid progress. The prediction underscores Tesla's robotics ambitions, despite ongoing EV sales slumps, autonomous driving hurdles, and competition.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, appeared on the 'Moonshots with Peter Diamandis' podcast, where he predicted Optimus robots would surpass human surgeons in precision and skill within three years. 'Three years. Three years at scale…There [will] probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on Earth,' Musk stated. He advised against pursuing medical school as 'pointless' given AI's trajectory, citing global doctor shortages, lengthy training periods, and evolving medical knowledge. By 2030, Musk envisions AI exceeding 'the intelligence of all humans combined,' enabling superior medical care universally accessible, beyond even what the U.S. President receives.
Tesla is centering its future on Optimus Gen 3, with plans for a major reveal, mass production starting at the Fremont facility (targeting one million units annually), a second line in Austin, and public sales by the end of 2027 at around $20,000 per unit. Internal factory data will train the robots for broad deployment. At the Davos Forum in February 2026, Musk called Optimus 'the first von Neumann machine' capable of building civilizations on habitable planets.
This shift comes as Tesla grapples with challenges. Global EV sales fell 6.7% in 2025—the second consecutive decline—with 1.65 million vehicles produced at only 70% capacity, leaving 700,000 units unused. European sales dropped 28%, amid competition from China. Autonomy efforts lag: California reported zero driverless miles in 2025 (sixth straight year), with just 562 supervised miles since 2016. Tesla holds only an entry-level permit requiring safety drivers and has not sought advanced approvals (needing 50,000+ supervised miles). A San Francisco 'robotaxi' service is human-driven under a charter permit. Musk has blamed regulations, once expressing shock if 2025 approval didn't come.
Competitors advance: Hyundai's Atlas robot (50kg payload) eyes factory use in 2028, while Chinese firms shipped 90% of 2025's global humanoid robots below $15,000. Tesla stock trades at $403.32—206.3% above fair value—with a P/E of ~399 versus the industry 24, down 6.29% over 30 days.
Musk's vision extends further, suggesting robots could handle manual labor, rendering retirement savings 'irrelevant' in an AI-abundant future. Experts note regulatory, ethical, and trial hurdles may delay timelines, though AI already aids diagnostics and drug discovery.
