Amid global tensions that could spark World War III, Indonesia faces criticism for its passive stance on conflicts like the US attack on Venezuela and China's threats to Taiwan. Analysts warn that Indonesia's geographic position makes it vulnerable to involvement in major conflicts. The Prabowo Subianto government is seen as overly cautious to avoid sending wrong signals to strategic partners.
Global tensions are escalating, with the potential for World War III triggered by high-risk military adventures. Smith Alhadar, advisor at the Institute for Democracy Education (IDe), criticizes Indonesia for appearing indifferent despite being at the center of geopolitical turmoil. He highlights the US attack on Venezuela to control it indefinitely, as stated by President Donald Trump, which could justify China in fully blockading Taiwan or even invading it.
If China acts, Japan would intervene to aid Taiwan. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in November that a Chinese attack on Taiwan poses an existential threat to Japan, particularly due to Beijing's claims on the Senkaku Islands. A China-Japan conflict could draw in Russia, the US, UK, EU, and Australia.
Indonesia's and ASEAN's strategic positions make them inseparable from the fallout. China claims territories of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and the North Natuna Sea. In a crisis, Indonesia would struggle to deny US forces access to the Malaka, Sunda, Lombok, Makassar Straits, and Morotai Island for encircling China, risking retaliation from Beijing.
The passive stance of the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka administration stems from fears that proactive de-escalation might send misguided signals to strategic partners China and the US. Foreign Minister Sugiono's lack of diplomatic experience is cited as a factor. Notably, Indonesia's silence on the US raid in Caracas that kidnapped President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores violates international law.
Indonesia's foreign policy principles—respecting sovereignty, non-intervention, and rejecting military force—clash with this approach. As a friendly Global South nation, Venezuela warrants a critical response to major powers' actions, akin to Indonesia's positions on Palestine, Cambodia, the Iraq invasion, and UNCLOS.
