Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state last week signals the breakdown of the rules-based international order. This move, amid pressures on Ukraine and threats to Taiwan, underscores how global norms are increasingly ignored for strategic gains. For India, it highlights the need to secure sovereignty through internal strength and deterrence.
Israel's decision to recognise Somaliland last week has drawn widespread condemnation but few expect a reversal. The recognition marks a definitive breakdown of the rules-based international order (RBIO), as noted in the context of Ukraine facing pressure to trade territory for peace with Russia and China's threats to take Taiwan by force. Washington's National Security Strategy 2025 dismisses the RBIO as a liberal illusion.
Somaliland's strategic location at the mouth of the Red Sea, connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal, underpins Israel's pragmatic calculus. The partnership offers Tel Aviv maritime access, strategic depth, and a larger regional role, outweighing diplomatic costs.
Reactions remain fragmented. Arab states have denounced the move, but the United Arab Emirates stays ambivalent due to investments in Berbera port. Bahrain and Morocco, signatories to the Abraham Accords with Israel, are silent. African governments criticise the violation of Somalia's sovereignty, yet landlocked Ethiopia remains quiet, having previously stated, “Addis Ababa will not be the first to recognise Somaliland, but it will not be third either.”
Somaliland has functioned as a de facto state for over three decades, balancing political reality with legal principle under the RBIO. Israel's action reveals how material interests often trump norms, a pattern seen in China's South China Sea gains despite Japan's normative campaigns.
For India, the unravelling offers sobering lessons: global norms do not guarantee territorial integrity, and sovereignty must be nurtured against threats. New Delhi, a sovereignty advocate in Asia, has been reluctant to criticise Russia's 2014 Crimea annexation or 2022 Ukraine invasion. It is unlikely to oppose Israel, given ties with Tel Aviv and Addis Ababa, while balancing African Union and Middle Eastern partners.
India's stakes in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa affect energy routes and naval strategy. In a post-RBIO world, Delhi must prioritise internal coherence, credible deterrence, and South Asian leadership to counter revisionism by powers like China, Russia, and the US. Global South solidarity proves unreliable, with divisions in ASEAN, the Arab League, and BRICS.
