Illustration depicting the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady while signaling a possible hike amid inflation.
Illustration depicting the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady while signaling a possible hike amid inflation.
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Fed holds rates steady but signals possible hike amid inflation

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The US Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range during its first decision under President Kevin Warsh.

In the press conference, Warsh warned that the central bank will not tolerate elevated inflation, impacted by the war in Iran. The Fed’s projections consensus points to at least one 25 basis point hike in the remainder of the year.

According to Bank of Mexico data, the peso depreciated 0.15 percent against the dollar, placing the exchange rate at 17.36 units. Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, noted that the dollar reached a high not seen since April 6.

Kate Moore, director of investments at Citi Wealth, stated that the message from policymakers indicates that the path of rates does not point to lower levels in the short term. Banamex reported the dollar at 17.78 pesos for sale.

人々が言っていること

Initial reactions on X to the Fed's decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh focused on the hawkish tone despite holding rates at 3.50-3.75%, with many noting the dot plot shift toward possible hikes and revised inflation forecasts. Users expressed skepticism about no cuts, market volatility in gold and stocks, and concerns over persistent inflation amid geopolitical events. Diverse views included hawkish interpretations from analysts, neutral market debriefs, and doubts that hikes would materialize soon.

関連記事

Illustration of Banxico's interest rate cut to 6.75% amid market declines, peso depreciation, surging oil prices, and Middle East tensions including US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure.
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Banxico cuts interest rate to 6.75% despite inflation and Middle East tensions

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Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 6.75% in a split decision, as global markets closed lower amid the US-Iran war. The BMV fell 1.65%, and the peso depreciated 1% against the dollar. Oil prices rose due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

The Mexican peso ended the session up 0.15% against the dollar at 17.76 pesos per unit, per Banco de México data. Traders assessed the feasibility of a ceasefire in Iran ahead of Banxico's monetary policy decision on Thursday. Analysts forecast the currency to hold in a 17.65-17.85 pesos per dollar range.

AIによるレポート

The Mexican peso ended May 21 with a modest depreciation, shaped by Banxico meeting minutes and Middle East developments.

In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.

AIによるレポート

The dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal lifted risk appetite in markets. Investors stayed cautious as they awaited details on any shifts in monetary policy.

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