One day after US President Donald Trump's announcement authorizing American oil companies to invest in Venezuela's vast oil reserves following Nicolás Maduro's arrest, new details highlight potential challenges for Mexico's state oil firm Pemex. With Venezuela holding the world's largest reserves, revived production could divert investments and exports, pressuring Pemex amid export restrictions and regional trade tensions.
Venezuela possesses 303.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, 19.4% of the global total per OPEC—nearly seven times the US's 45 billion barrels and 60 times Mexico's 5.1 billion as of late 2024.
Yet production lags due to PDVSA's decline: 963,000 barrels per day from January to August 2025 (EIA data), far below the 1997 peak of 3.181 million. Mexico's Pemex averaged 1.633 million barrels per day of hydrocarbons in 2025 (1.367 million crude), currently outpacing Venezuela.
Trump's plan positions US firms to repair infrastructure and boost output, creating direct competition for Pemex, warns Ramsés Pech of Caraiva y Asociados. Potential investments shifting to Venezuela could limit Pemex to domestic markets, where 41% of revenue comes from gasoline/diesel sales and crude exports under 20%.
Mexico's policy under President Claudia Sheinbaum limits exports to 400,000 barrels per day by 2030 (150,000 to Texas's Deer Park refinery). Rising Venezuelan supply—to potentially 1.8 million barrels per day and 5 million cubic feet of gas—could sideline Mexican crude, forcing discounted sales elsewhere and complicating USMCA reviews amid Canada's 10% export tariffs to the US.
For the US, Venezuelan control promises cheap fuels to combat inflation, with WTI at $57.21 per barrel early 2026 (down 18% from 2025) and Brent down 25.8%. The US oil embargo on Venezuela persists for now.
