The People's Republic of China announced safeguard measures for beef imports starting January 1, 2026, with country-specific quotas and 55% tariffs on excess volumes. These will affect Argentina, with limits of 511,000 tons in 2026, 521,000 in 2027, and 532,000 in 2028. Experts estimate the initial impact will be limited but could encourage market diversification.
The People's Republic of China will implement safeguard measures on beef imports starting January 1, 2026, lasting three years until December 31, 2028. These include country-specific tariff quotas, with a 55% tariff on volumes exceeding set limits. The affected countries, by volume order, are Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, New Zealand, Australia, and the United States.
For Argentina, the duty-free limit is 511,000 tons in 2026, 521,000 in 2027, and 532,000 in 2028. According to data from the Instituto de Promoción de la Carne Vacuna Argentina (IPCVA), between January and November 2025, 453,860 tons were exported to China, representing 70% of total shipments, a 12.5% volume drop from 2024 but a 20.2% increase in foreign currency to US$1.723 million.
Fernando Herrera, president of the Asociación de Productores Exportadores Argentinos (APEA), stated that the quotas "are aligned with what we've been exporting in recent years, so it seems it won't affect us too much. Of course, this will impact volume growth, because with the 55% tariff, it might be hard to grow." He added it could be positive for seeking other markets, such as the potential 88,000-ton quota to the United States.
Herrera also highlighted uncertainties regarding quota administration in Argentina and certification for January shipments. Consultant Víctor Tonelli estimated 2025 exports to China at around 500,000 tons, potentially dropping to 400,000 in 2026 due to increased U.S. shipments and lower cattle supply, staying below the limit. "For 2027, I don't think the 'China Quota' will affect us either," Tonelli concluded.
These measures force Argentina to rethink its production model, promoting diversification of export destinations.
