The Indian National Congress's ongoing decline traces back to the 1969 party split and subsequent centralization of power, according to political analyst Sanjaya Baru. This centralization, centered on the Nehru-Gandhi family, prevented organizational revival despite several opportunities. Meanwhile, the BJP risks a similar fate under Narendra Modi's leadership style.
Sanjaya Baru, in an opinion piece, attributes the Congress party's decline to a process that began with the 1969 split, when the party became overly centralized around the prime minister's office and the Gandhi family. Former President Pranab Mukherjee once suggested to Baru that this marked the start, while ex-Prime Minister Narasimha Rao described the party as turning into a 'proprietorship' by the Emergency era.
The 1980s saw a brief revival under Indira Gandhi, but it relied on the same centralized model. P.V. Narasimha Rao attempted to strengthen the organization by holding elections to the Congress Working Committee during his tenure, though the effort failed due to his limited political base in Andhra Pradesh.
Post-1990s, the party missed chances to rebuild from the grassroots or empower regional leaders. After forming a coalition government in 2004, opportunities arose to integrate figures like Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee, but instead, power consolidated further around Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul. In 2013, Rahul Gandhi publicly rejected a cabinet ordinance, prompting then-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to endorse him as the ideal future leader, stating, 'I have always maintained that Rahul Gandhi would be an ideal choice for the PM post after the 2014 elections.'
Baru argues that if Singh had contested the 2009 elections, he could have empowered regional leadership and revived the party, as Rao had tried. Rahul inherited a weakened base, exacerbated by recent electoral losses in Bihar and fading momentum from his Bharat Jodo Yatra.
In contrast, the BJP, once cadre-based, has shifted to personality-driven politics under Narendra Modi, sidelining regional leaders like Shivraj Singh Chouhan. This could lead to its organizational decline, despite RSS support. Within Congress, emerging voices from leaders like Siddaramaiah, Revanth Reddy, and Shashi Tharoor signal a push for decentralization, which Baru sees as vital for the party's future.
