After years of acceleration, food prices in Brazil are set to rise less than general inflation in 2025. Fipe data shows deflation in the food group in November, with a 2.4% year-to-date increase up to October, below the 3.3% general index in São Paulo. Good harvests of products like rice, beans, and milk explain the price drops.
From January 2020 to October 2025, cumulative general inflation was 63%, well below the 96% for food, but the trend is now reversing. Fipe released data on Tuesday (18) showing deflation in the food group in November, with a 2.4% year-to-date rise up to October in São Paulo, below the 3.3% general IPCA index. This slowdown is expected to continue into 2025, with food prices rising less than the overall inflation rate.
The price drops stem from abundant harvests. Rice hit a record production of 12.8 million tons in 2025, per Conab, leading to a 23.3% price decline in the first ten months. Beans, aided by strong first-crop supply, fell 7% in supermarkets. Long-life milk prices dropped 1.5% at retail, due to field investments and favorable weather, according to Cepea.
Other items show mixed trends. Soy oil, despite a record 171 million-ton harvest, declined only 2.3%, with 59 million tons crushed by Abiove, some going to biodiesel. For meats, pork is down 6.1%, beef 1.5%, while chicken is up 2.4% through October. In natura products like potatoes, onions, and garlic fell 27%, but legumes rose 20% and fruits 0.6%.
The wheat harvest was poor at 7.7 million tons, boosting imports and raising pasta and flour prices by 2%. In coming weeks, meat demand is set to increase with year-end holidays and Chinese chicken imports.