South Africa's economy shows positive signs with growth exceeding 1% and removal from the FATF Grey List, while diplomatic ties with the US under the Trump administration begin to improve. Speculation surrounds the appointment of a new ambassador to Washington, and a US ambassador-designate expressed willingness to reset relations despite longstanding grievances. However, challenges like trade barriers and political disputes persist.
Recent economic indicators point to a revival in South Africa. Growth rates are projected to exceed 1% for the first time in recent history, the country has been removed from the Financial Action Task Force’s “Grey List,” and gold prices above $4,000 per ounce have boosted the mining sector. These developments offer hope amid ongoing job losses in the automotive and agricultural sectors, stemming from the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) and punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration.
Diplomatic relations with the US marked a potential shift last week. There is strong speculation that President Cyril Ramaphosa plans to appoint Dr. Alistair Ruiters, an experienced trade diplomat with expertise in investment promotion, as South Africa’s ambassador to Washington. The position has been vacant for some time, despite the US being South Africa’s second-largest trade partner after China and third-largest investor.
Ruiters, currently the Department of Trade and Industry’s chief negotiator with the US, will need to navigate political diplomacy to address key obstacles. These were highlighted in testimony by Leo Brent Bozell III, the US ambassador-designate to South Africa, during his Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on Thursday. Bozell, from a prominent conservative family, reiterated Trump Administration complaints including South Africa’s International Court of Justice case against Israel, military exercises with China, Russia, and Iran, alleged white Afrikaner genocide, leadership in the BRICS movement, and rampant corruption weakening governance.
Despite this, Bozell indicated a willingness to reboot relations. Democratic Senators Chris van Hollen and Chris Murphy criticized his past anti-ANC statements and the administration’s race-based immigration policy for white Afrikaners, which Bozell evaded awkwardly. In contrast, he engaged positively with Senator Mike Lee on US investments in critical minerals and rare earths to create jobs and secure supply chains from Chinese dominance.
A senior US Senate staff member noted that Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) was not a focus, suggesting relations may not be as strained as perceived. Agoa’s renewal is now a matter of “when” rather than “if,” though legislative delays due to a government shutdown pose hurdles. South Africa faces an uphill battle to reduce US market access impediments until progress on issues like the ICJ case and Afrikaner protections.