Crescat warns of new inflation regime

Crescat Capital has published analysis warning of persistent inflation driven by US fiscal imbalances.

The firm notes net interest outlays rose from 1.4% to 3.1% of GDP since 2020. The Congressional Budget Office projects this ratio reaching 4.6% by 2036.

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Illustration of a fiscal expert warning about rising government debt reaching 43.6% of GDP due to additional borrowing.
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CFA warns of additional borrowing that would raise debt to 43.6% of GDP

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The Autonomous Fiscal Council warned Tuesday about the effects of the additional borrowing project for US$6.200 million. Gross debt would reach up to 43.6% of GDP in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.

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Economists on the scientific advisory board to the Stability Council forecast an excessive deficit of 4.25 percent for 2026. They urge the federal government to make more savings to avoid breaching EU debt rules.

Days after the Philippines achieved upper-middle-income status, the government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 3.5% to 4.5%. Economic managers cited domestic and external uncertainties including governance issues and geopolitical tensions.

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The International Monetary Fund has called on Ethiopia's central bank to stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation pressures return, following approval of the fifth review under a credit facility that released about $464 million.

Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz presented the first-quarter 2026 Public Finance Report and accused errors in the previous government's debt projections.

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