Crescat alerta para um novo regime de inflação

A Crescat Capital publicou uma análise alertando sobre uma inflação persistente impulsionada pelos desequilíbrios fiscais dos EUA.

A empresa observa que as despesas líquidas com juros aumentaram de 1,4% para 3,1% do PIB desde 2020. O Escritório de Orçamento do Congresso projeta que essa proporção atingirá 4,6% até 2036.

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Illustration of a fiscal expert warning about rising government debt reaching 43.6% of GDP due to additional borrowing.
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CFA warns of additional borrowing that would raise debt to 43.6% of GDP

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The Autonomous Fiscal Council warned Tuesday about the effects of the additional borrowing project for US$6.200 million. Gross debt would reach up to 43.6% of GDP in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.

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Economists on the scientific advisory board to the Stability Council forecast an excessive deficit of 4.25 percent for 2026. They urge the federal government to make more savings to avoid breaching EU debt rules.

Days after the Philippines achieved upper-middle-income status, the government lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 3.5% to 4.5%. Economic managers cited domestic and external uncertainties including governance issues and geopolitical tensions.

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The International Monetary Fund has called on Ethiopia's central bank to stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation pressures return, following approval of the fifth review under a credit facility that released about $464 million.

Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz presented the first-quarter 2026 Public Finance Report and accused errors in the previous government's debt projections.

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