A Crescat Capital publicou uma análise alertando sobre uma inflação persistente impulsionada pelos desequilíbrios fiscais dos EUA.
A empresa observa que as despesas líquidas com juros aumentaram de 1,4% para 3,1% do PIB desde 2020. O Escritório de Orçamento do Congresso projeta que essa proporção atingirá 4,6% até 2036.
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The Ministry of Finance published the Financial Plan for 2026, projecting 2.6% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. The document estimates an average dollar rate of $3,801 and Brent barrel at US$59.2, though analysts warn of calculation errors and lack of concrete measures for fiscal cuts. The publication was delayed by more than a month compared to previous years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.
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The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.
Inflation expectations are increasing in US breakeven rates and eurozone swap rates, influenced by recent statements from President Trump. Oil prices have stabilized alongside reduced anxiety in risk assets, yet concerns persist over widening spreads. Analysts highlight these trends as problematic amid ongoing economic conflicts.
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The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its statement from the Article IV consultation on Chile on May 4, 2026, praising President José Antonio Kast's National Reconstruction Plan for boosting medium-term growth while warning of fiscal costs requiring further consolidation. The IMF lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%.
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US borrowing costs are rising due to factors beyond war inflation.