Crescat Capital telah menerbitkan analisis yang memperingatkan adanya inflasi persisten yang didorong oleh ketidakseimbangan fiskal AS.
Perusahaan tersebut mencatat bahwa pengeluaran bunga bersih telah meningkat dari 1,4% menjadi 3,1% dari PDB sejak tahun 2020. Kantor Anggaran Kongres (Congressional Budget Office) memproyeksikan rasio ini akan mencapai 4,6% pada tahun 2036.
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The Ministry of Finance published the Financial Plan for 2026, projecting 2.6% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. The document estimates an average dollar rate of $3,801 and Brent barrel at US$59.2, though analysts warn of calculation errors and lack of concrete measures for fiscal cuts. The publication was delayed by more than a month compared to previous years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.
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The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.
Ekspektasi inflasi meningkat di tingkat breakeven AS dan suku bunga swap zona euro, dipengaruhi oleh pernyataan terbaru dari Presiden Trump. Harga minyak telah stabil disertai berkurangnya kecemasan di aset berisiko, namun kekhawatiran tetap ada atas pelebaran spread. Analis menyoroti tren ini sebagai bermasalah di tengah konflik ekonomi yang sedang berlangsung.
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The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its statement from the Article IV consultation on Chile on May 4, 2026, praising President José Antonio Kast's National Reconstruction Plan for boosting medium-term growth while warning of fiscal costs requiring further consolidation. The IMF lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%.
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Biaya pinjaman AS meningkat karena faktor-faktor di luar inflasi perang.