Crescat Capital har publicerat en analys som varnar för ihållande inflation driven av amerikanska finanspolitiska obalanser.
Företaget noterar att de nettoränteutgifter har stigit från 1,4 % till 3,1 % av BNP sedan 2020. Congressional Budget Office prognostiserar att denna kvot kommer att nå 4,6 % till år 2036.
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The Ministry of Finance published the Financial Plan for 2026, projecting 2.6% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. The document estimates an average dollar rate of $3,801 and Brent barrel at US$59.2, though analysts warn of calculation errors and lack of concrete measures for fiscal cuts. The publication was delayed by more than a month compared to previous years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.
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The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.
Inflationsförväntningarna ökar i USA:s breakeven-räntor och eurozonens swapräntor, påverkade av senaste uttalanden från president Trump. Oljepriserna har stabiliserats i takt med minskad oro i risktillgångar, men farhågor kvarstår kring vidgande spreadar. Analytiker framhåller dessa trender som problematiska mitt i pågående ekonomiska konflikter.
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The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its statement from the Article IV consultation on Chile on May 4, 2026, praising President José Antonio Kast's National Reconstruction Plan for boosting medium-term growth while warning of fiscal costs requiring further consolidation. The IMF lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.2%.
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USA:s lånekostnader stiger på grund av faktorer bortom krigsrelaterad inflation.