Economists on the scientific advisory board to the Stability Council forecast an excessive deficit of 4.25 percent for 2026. They urge the federal government to make more savings to avoid breaching EU debt rules.
The experts calculate that government spending will rise by 5.75 percent in 2026. That exceeds the 4.5 percent cap agreed with the EU. Only about half of the overrun stems from higher defense spending.
The board strongly recommends limiting the rise in the debt ratio as much as possible. Otherwise Germany risks soon violating EU debt rules. A credit built up in 2025 could however provide short-term relief.
The Stability Council monitors the budgets of the federal government and the states. It includes Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and the finance ministers of the Länder.
