Statistics from the German Weather Service indicate that white Christmases in Germany are becoming rarer. There used to be more snow during the holidays, but climate change is leading to milder temperatures. The probability of snow never exceeded 20 percent in major cities.
In Germany, snow at Christmas is the exception, contrary to depictions in films and books. The German Weather Service (DWD) defines a white Christmas as at least one centimeter of snow at 7 a.m. on Christmas Eve and the first and second holiday days. Data reveal that the probability in major cities like Berlin, Hamburg, or Frankfurt never exceeded 20 percent, excluding the south.
Comparing the periods 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2020 shows a decline in these probabilities. Many recall more frequent white Christmases from childhood, possibly due to a snowy period in the 1960s and the stronger memory of special events. The last widespread white Christmas occurred in 2010.
The rarity stems from Christmas thaw weather: Mild Atlantic air brings rain from the west. Winters are also warming. The average holiday temperature from 1781 to 2023 was 1.20 degrees Celsius, from 1991 to 2020 it was 1.66 degrees. December 2024 averaged 2.8 degrees. The highest recorded Christmas temperature was 19.3 degrees in 2012, the lowest -29.1 degrees in 1962.
For 2025, experts forecast no white Christmas in most regions, with possible light snow in the south.
