Ethiopia anticipates a record wheat harvest of 7 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, per the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Grain and Feed Annual report. Despite this, Black Sea grain imports are outpacing local supply to address tight domestic markets.
Ethiopia's agricultural sector faces a paradox of record wheat production and persistent market pressures. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's latest Grain and Feed Annual report forecasts 7.0 million metric tons of wheat for the 2026/27 marketing year, an eight percent rise from the prior year.
This projected surge stems primarily from the government's National Wheat Flagship Program, which has boosted irrigated wheat farming in lowland regions. Enhanced seed varieties, cluster farming initiatives, and mechanization efforts further support growth by connecting smallholder and commercial farmers directly to local millers.
Structural economic changes and elevated domestic costs have nonetheless driven reliance on Black Sea grain shipments, which now exceed local supplies to steady volatile markets.