Analyst Joost van Dreunen warns that Rockstar's upcoming Grand Theft Auto 6 will not resolve the video game industry's broader challenges, despite expectations of massive sales. He describes hopes for the game as a 'magic bullet' as naive. GTA 6 is slated for release in November 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, following a delay from May 2026.
Expert's Perspective
Joost van Dreunen, an analyst and NYU Stern professor, told IGN that while GTA 6 is poised for a huge launch—with projections of 40 million units sold and $3 billion in revenue in its first year—it won't address systemic issues in the gaming sector. 'There's even a somewhat naive expectation that this one release will reverse the industry's current direction. It won't,' van Dreunen said.
He anticipates a 'high' followed by a 'hangover,' with investors potentially shifting capital elsewhere after the launch, leading to lower industry valuations. 'After the high comes the hangover,' he added. 'I expect a period of sobriety to follow.'
Industry Context
The video game industry has endured significant turmoil, including mass layoffs, price hikes, and canceled projects. Former PlayStation executive Shawn Layden has repeatedly called the AAA development model unsustainable. Similarly, Assassin's Creed III director Alex Hutchinson described the pursuit of AAA titles as a 'cancerous growth' back in 2012, predicting their eventual decline. 'I think that will leave the AAA blockbusters as nothing more than the last of the dinosaurs,' Hutchinson said.
GTA 6's release is seen by some as a pivotal moment, but van Dreunen emphasizes it cannot single-handedly stabilize the sector amid ongoing challenges.