Expectativas de inflação sobem nas taxas dos EUA e da zona euro

As expectativas de inflação estão aumentando nas taxas de break-even dos EUA e nas taxas de swap da zona euro, influenciadas por declarações recentes do Presidente Trump. Os preços do petróleo estabilizaram juntamente com a redução da ansiedade em ativos de risco, mas persistem preocupações com a ampliação dos spreads. Analistas destacam essas tendências como problemáticas em meio a conflitos econômicos em curso.

Em 11 de março de 2026, analistas financeiros da Seeking Alpha relataram o aumento das expectativas de inflação em mercados-chave. As palavras do Presidente Trump da segunda-feira anterior continuam a ecoar, reverberando em um pano de fundo de tensões econômicas persistentes descritas como um 'vácuo de conflito em curso'.

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Illustration of Asian stock traders reacting to falling markets amid US-Iran tensions and rising oil prices.
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Asia shares slip amid escalating US-Iran tensions

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Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, involving the US, Israel, and Iran, have triggered a slide in Asian shares and a surge in oil prices. Investors are turning to the US dollar for safety amid fears of prolonged energy cost increases and inflation. While emerging markets face short-term losses, experts see long-term resilience.

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Sweden's inflation could rise by 1–2 percentage points this year due to the Middle East war, says professor emeritus Lars Calmfors. He points to rising energy prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. A VAT cut on foodstuffs will meanwhile mitigate the effect.

The US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which killed supreme leader Ali Khamenei, have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil and gold prices. This escalation is threatening South Africa's inflation control efforts and interest rate cuts. While higher oil prices pose risks, rising gold prices offer some economic benefits.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3.1% for 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from prior estimates, due to the Middle East conflict. Global inflation would rise to 4.4% from higher energy costs. In adverse scenarios, growth could drop to near 2% with inflation near 6%.

Stockholm's stock exchange opened the week with sharp declines due to rising oil and gas prices from the escalating Middle East conflict. The OMXS index fell 1.7 percent at close, wiping out the year's earlier gains. Experts warn of potential impacts on Stockholm's housing market.

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Crude prices briefly fell after reports that the International Energy Agency would release oil reserves, but rebounded as markets doubted the plan would proceed to offset supply shocks from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The proposed drawdown would exceed the 182 million barrels released in 2022. Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices rose by session's end.

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