The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar weakened at the opening of trading on Tuesday morning, January 13, 2026, influenced by hawkish statements from Fed officials and political uncertainty in the US. The rate moved to around Rp16,871-Rp16,873 per US dollar from the previous Rp16,855. Analysts predict ongoing fluctuations amid potentially rising US inflation data.
At the opening of trading in Jakarta on Tuesday (January 13, 2026), the rupiah exchange rate weakened by 18 points or 0.11 percent to Rp16,873 per US dollar from the previous Rp16,855, according to Republika data. Meanwhile, by 09:02 WIB, the rupiah was traded at Rp16,871 per US dollar, down 16 points or 0.09 percent, as reported by VIVA.
Currency analyst from Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, stated that the weakening was triggered by hawkish comments from John Williams, President of the New York Fed. “The rupiah is expected to continue weakening against the rebounding US dollar in response to the hawkish statement from Fed official John Williams, President of the New York Fed, signaling that the Fed does not need to rush interest rate cuts,” he said in Jakarta.
Williams assessed that current US interest rates are already appropriate for employment and inflation conditions, making near-term rate cuts unnecessary. Additionally, the US dollar could strengthen due to core inflation data expected to rise from 2.6 percent to 2.7 percent, while headline inflation holds at 2.7 percent.
On another front, markets are monitoring US political uncertainty after the Department of Justice threatened the Federal Reserve with criminal charges. Fed Chair Jerome Powell received a court subpoena related to his Senate testimony, raising concerns about the central bank's independence and shaking markets.
Domestically, Bank Indonesia reported retail sales grew 1.5 percent month-on-month in November 2025, up from 0.6 percent previously, and 6.3 percent year-on-year. Projections for December 2025 indicate 4.4 percent growth. Based on these factors, the rupiah is forecasted to trade in the range of Rp16,800 to Rp16,900 per US dollar.
