The U.S. Department of Defense's 2026 National Defense Strategy states that South Korea has the capability to take primary responsibility for deterring North Korean threats with limited American support. This aligns with the Trump administration's America First policy, aiming to modernize the alliance and shift focus toward countering China. While assessing North Korea's nuclear threat as severe, the strategy omits any goal of denuclearization.
The U.S. Department of Defense released its 2026 National Defense Strategy on January 23, assessing that South Korea possesses the capability to assume primary responsibility for deterring North Korean threats, thanks to its powerful military, high defense spending, robust defense industry, and mandatory conscription. The document states that 'South Korea also has the will to do so, given that it faces a direct and clear threat from North Korea,' and can achieve this with 'critical but more limited U.S. support.' This shift in the balance of responsibility aligns with efforts to update the U.S. force posture in Korea and modernize the Seoul-Washington alliance, redirecting focus toward deterring China's growing threats. The NDS characterizes North Korea as a 'direct military threat' to South Korea and Japan, both U.S. treaty allies, noting that its nuclear forces present a 'clear and present danger' of nuclear attack on the American homeland. Despite this, like the 2022 version, the 2026 NDS omits any objective of pursuing North Korea's denuclearization; the White House's December National Security Strategy similarly excludes it, even though President Donald Trump has pledged the North's 'complete' denuclearization. The strategy underscores burden-sharing as essential, praising South Korea's voluntary commitment to allocate 3.5 percent of its GDP to defense as a 'model' for allies. In May, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tasked Under Secretary Elbridge Colby with drafting the NDS to prioritize ally burden-sharing and Indo-Pacific deterrence against China. Colby's upcoming trip to South Korea and Japan is anticipated. Speculation surrounds potential changes to the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea, traditionally Army-centric and focused on North Korea, toward broader roles in China contingencies beyond the peninsula. This approach aims to foster a 'stronger and more mutually beneficial' alliance better aligned with U.S. priorities, while incentivizing allies to enhance their own defenses across Europe, the Middle East, and the Korean Peninsula.
