A new United Nations analysis reveals that 81 percent of the global population now resides in urban areas, far higher than previous estimates. This figure, derived from a standardized definition across countries, highlights accelerating urbanization trends. The report projects that by 2050, 83 percent of people will be urban dwellers.
The United Nations has released an updated assessment of global urbanization, finding that cities and towns house 81 percent of the world's population. This comprehensive report, led by Sara Hertog at the UN in New York, addresses inconsistencies in prior data by applying a uniform definition: cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants and 1,500 people per square kilometer, or towns with at least 5,000 residents and 300 per square kilometer density.
Previous estimates, such as the 2018 World Urbanisation Prospects report, indicated only 55 percent urban living, due to varying national definitions—for example, Denmark's threshold of 200 people versus Japan's 50,000. The new study analyzed satellite and survey data from 237 countries, estimating that 45 percent of people live in cities (mostly under 250,000 population) and 36 percent in towns, leaving 19 percent in rural areas. These figures reflect the state as of the analysis, projected around 2025.
Looking ahead, the report forecasts 83 percent urbanization by 2050, with urban numbers rising steadily while rural populations peak in the 2040s, largely in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, before declining. Hertog notes this will aid progress on the UN's 11th Sustainable Development Goal, targeting inclusive, safe, and sustainable cities by 2030, and inform Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.
Regional drivers differ: internal migration fuels growth in eastern and southern Asia for education, jobs, and social opportunities; international migration dominates in Europe and North America; and high birth rates drive it in sub-Saharan Africa. Urbanization's environmental impact varies—poor planning can spur car-dependent sprawl and emissions, but efficient transport can reduce them compared to rural areas.
Health expert Andrea Mechelli at King's College London highlights urban risks like air pollution, heat exposure, and limited green space, linked to cardiovascular issues, Alzheimer's, anxiety, and depression. Yet, cities offer responsive healthcare and social connections. "The report tells us it’s now more urgent than ever to think about how to make our cities more liveable, and this means greener—with all the benefits that brings," Mechelli says. Hertog adds that careful planning is key to balancing these effects for health and the planet.