Colombia's coffee production falls 34% in January 2026

Colombia's coffee production dropped 34% in January 2026 compared to the same month the previous year, reaching just 893,000 60-kg sacks. The National Federation of Coffee Growers attributes this decline to climate shocks, exchange rate appreciation, and international price volatility. Nonetheless, exports over the last 12 months saw a slight increase.

Colombia's coffee sector is grappling with major challenges at the start of 2026, marked by a sharp decline in production. The National Federation of Coffee Growers (Fedecafé) reports that January output totaled 893,000 60-kg sacks, a 34% drop from the 1.35 million sacks in January 2025. This downturn extends the pressures seen at the end of 2025, driven by ongoing climate issues.

On exports, Colombia shipped 12.8 million sacks abroad over the past 12 months, a 3% rise from the previous 12.5 million. Inventories, however, fell to 1.10 million sacks in January 2026 from 1.18 million in December, a monthly decrease of 78,000 sacks.

The National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane) noted that coffee exports surged 70.6% in 2025, accounting for 38% of the agropecuary sector's total. This performance generated an economic impact of 20 trillion pesos and supported 23 regions nationwide.

Fedecafé's guild manager highlighted on social media that, beyond climate shocks, exchange rate appreciation and international price fluctuations have impacted producers. The federation stressed that “this reflects the coffee's sensitivity to climate shocks and international volatility.”

In response, Fedecafé underscores the Coffee Price Stabilization Fund as a vital mechanism to protect coffee growers' family incomes and buffer against market risks.

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Illustration of a Colombian factory during industrial production decline in January 2026, with workers reviewing falling output charts.
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Colombia's industrial production falls 0.5% in January 2026

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DANE reported that manufacturing industrial production fell 0.5% in January 2026 compared to January 2025, with real sales down 0.7%. This marks two consecutive months of production contraction and three for sales.

Colombia's agricultural exports hit a record in 2025, rising 33.5% in value and 20.1% in volume compared to 2024, per DANE data. This surge boosted rural employment to 4.8 million people and accounted for 30.5% of the nation's total external sales.

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The International Coffee Organization reported a 10% decline in average coffee prices for February amid an improving supply outlook. Forecasts of a record Brazilian crop contributed to the fall, though a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz introduces market uncertainty.

Colombia's total imports in 2025 amounted to US$70.502.1 million, a 10% increase from 2024, mainly driven by the manufacturing sector. In December of that year, external purchases reached US$6,050.7 million, up 7.1%. This trend highlights increased acquisitions in machinery and agricultural products.

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has not directly driven up coffee prices, which remain stable amid predictions of record harvests. However, spikes in oil prices are increasing freight, energy, and fertiliser costs, posing indirect risks to the coffee industry. Escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains.

In January 2026, Colombia's unemployment rate stood at 10.9%, the lowest for any January since 2001, with 324,000 more workers than in the same month of 2025. The number of unemployed people fell by 186,000 to 2.8 million. This improvement was driven by growth in self-employment and people leaving the labor force.

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Colombia has seen a sharp drop in the manufacturing industry's share of its GDP, from 16% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2025. This structural decline is accompanied by relative growth in the agricultural sector, signaling reprimarization. Neighboring countries like Mexico and Brazil have maintained more stable industrial bases.

 

 

 

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