China counts wins and losses among swing nations in new power rivalry era

The US-China race for hi-tech resources intensifies across the Global South, pressuring swing nations in the middle to strike a balance. The Venezuela crisis has laid bare the limits of China's economic-centric diplomacy in competing with the US, serving as a stark reminder that spheres of influence continue to shape global politics in this new era of great power rivalry.

In the intensifying rivalry between the US and China for sway among middle powers and so-called swing states—those not fully aligned with either great power—China has expanded its presence through economic clout, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships in regions traditionally dominated by the US.

China has also deepened technological and scientific cooperation with the region, which it views as central to its drive for a united Global South capable of countering US pressure and advancing a new multipolar international order.

The Venezuela crisis has delivered a stark reminder of the limits of China's economic-centric diplomacy towards third countries in its competition with the US. While China has made inroads in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia—such as partnerships in Bolivia and Argentina—swing nations like India, Panama, and Canada face pressures to choose sides. Keywords highlight figures like Nicolas Maduro and Trump, alongside Brics, underscoring geopolitical dynamics.

Observers note that despite these efforts, the reality of spheres of influence constrains China's approach.

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Illustration depicting Latin American leaders at a summit reassessing alliances with China after US capture of Maduro, with symbolic flags and background scenes of the arrest and oil trade shifts.
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Latin America Reassesses China Ties After US Capture of Maduro

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Following the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 4, 2026, Latin American governments are rethinking their reliance on China and Russia for protection against Washington. Beijing has reaffirmed its commitment to Venezuela amid ongoing energy ties, while US President Trump pledged forces will oversee a political transition to keep oil flowing globally, including to China.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, world leaders took veiled swipes at the United States, while China framed itself as a defender of the post-war system, analysts say. Western countries are recalibrating their approach to Beijing amid uncertainties from Donald Trump's influence.

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In a virtual conversation at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, Chinese scholar Wang Jisi warned that the current world order of ‘two superpowers and many strong powers’ faces growing risks of conflict. He voiced concerns about America’s inward turn under US President Donald Trump, Washington’s pursuit of containment in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms, and mounting cross-strait tensions.

South Africa grapples with tensions between its historical foreign policy roots and economic ties to the West, amid recent stances on Israel and Venezuela. These positions highlight challenges in a shifting international order. Strategic ambiguity is becoming unsustainable for the nation.

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Following its initial condemnation, China's envoy at an emergency UN Security Council meeting on January 6 strongly denounced the US military seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, urging their immediate release and a return to diplomatic solutions.

A national survey by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reveals that 47% of Americans believe China has already surpassed the US or will do so within the next five years. Another 27% think the shift will take longer, while 26% say China will never catch up. The poll was conducted from November 24 to December 1.

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Venezuelan envoy Remigio Ceballos stated in Beijing that despite concerns in the Chinese capital over last month's unprecedented US assault on Venezuela, ties between the two nations will remain unaffected by third-party interference. Ceballos dismissed reports that Washington would set prices for all oil transactions between China and Venezuela, emphasizing that Chinese enterprises' operations there continue normally.

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