China counts wins and losses among swing nations in new power rivalry era

The US-China race for hi-tech resources intensifies across the Global South, pressuring swing nations in the middle to strike a balance. The Venezuela crisis has laid bare the limits of China's economic-centric diplomacy in competing with the US, serving as a stark reminder that spheres of influence continue to shape global politics in this new era of great power rivalry.

In the intensifying rivalry between the US and China for sway among middle powers and so-called swing states—those not fully aligned with either great power—China has expanded its presence through economic clout, infrastructure investments, and strategic partnerships in regions traditionally dominated by the US.

China has also deepened technological and scientific cooperation with the region, which it views as central to its drive for a united Global South capable of countering US pressure and advancing a new multipolar international order.

The Venezuela crisis has delivered a stark reminder of the limits of China's economic-centric diplomacy towards third countries in its competition with the US. While China has made inroads in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia—such as partnerships in Bolivia and Argentina—swing nations like India, Panama, and Canada face pressures to choose sides. Keywords highlight figures like Nicolas Maduro and Trump, alongside Brics, underscoring geopolitical dynamics.

Observers note that despite these efforts, the reality of spheres of influence constrains China's approach.

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Illustration depicting Latin American leaders at a summit reassessing alliances with China after US capture of Maduro, with symbolic flags and background scenes of the arrest and oil trade shifts.
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Latin America Reassesses China Ties After US Capture of Maduro

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Following the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 4, 2026, Latin American governments are rethinking their reliance on China and Russia for protection against Washington. Beijing has reaffirmed its commitment to Venezuela amid ongoing energy ties, while US President Trump pledged forces will oversee a political transition to keep oil flowing globally, including to China.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, world leaders took veiled swipes at the United States, while China framed itself as a defender of the post-war system, analysts say. Western countries are recalibrating their approach to Beijing amid uncertainties from Donald Trump's influence.

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In a virtual conversation at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, Chinese scholar Wang Jisi warned that the current world order of ‘two superpowers and many strong powers’ faces growing risks of conflict. He voiced concerns about America’s inward turn under US President Donald Trump, Washington’s pursuit of containment in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms, and mounting cross-strait tensions.

In the December 23, 2025, UN Security Council meeting on US seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers and naval pressures—where Venezuela accused Washington of extortion with Russia and China backing—China's Sun Lei warned of escalating regional tensions and sovereignty violations. Caracas is advancing legislation targeting naval blockade supporters amid the Trump administration's crackdown.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has outlined a principled and pragmatic agenda for nations navigating a new era of great power rivalry. His recent Beijing visit exemplified diplomatic pragmatism, including negotiations for an energy cooperation framework and the rollback of Canada's 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

China plans a 9.3 percent increase in foreign affairs spending this year, the highest in three years and outpacing the military budget's 7 percent rise. Analysts say this signals Beijing's intent to consolidate geopolitical clout amid escalating global instability. The United States shows signs of withdrawing from its role as a world leader.

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Joel Netshitenzhe, executive director of the Mapungubwe Institute, delivered a presentation on global power dynamics at the eThekwini Colloquium, highlighting the tension between unipolarity and emerging multipolarity. He discussed China's economic rise and the United States' internal challenges amid ongoing great power transitions. Netshitenzhe urged South Africa to leverage its resources and build strategic alliances in response.

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