China's beef quotas create opportunities for Colombia

China has announced annual quotas and a 55% tariff on beef imports exceeding limits for South American suppliers like Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, but Colombia is exempt due to its small market share.

The policy, effective from January 2026, aims to protect Chinese local producers. Total quotas will be 2.69 million tons in 2026, rising to 2.74 million in 2027 and 2.8 million in 2028. Shipments exceeding these limits will face the punitive 55% tariff.

Colombia, with a historical share under 3% of Chinese imports, is not subject to these restrictions. This provides a competitive edge, according to sector experts. José Félix Lafaurie Rivera, president of Fedegan, stated: “China is today one of the most relevant markets for South American beef. Therefore, any adjustment in its trade rules has immediate effects on prices, volumes, and export strategies. In this new scenario, Colombia emerges as a smaller but potentially benefiting actor”.

Dane data shows that from January to October 2025, China imported 16,006 tons of Colombian beef worth US$77.6 million, a record surpassing the 10,650 tons for all of 2024 (US$41.3 million). This market accounted for 51.4% of Colombia's beef exports in that period.

Augusto Beltrán Segrera from Fedegan said: “This is good news for Colombia. They don't impose a tariff on us because historically we have less than 3% of the imports, so the tariff doesn't apply to Colombia. Thus, with this news, we will have a competitive advantage because Colombian products won't have additional tariffs”.

Beltrán estimates Colombia could export up to 50,000 tons to China, tripling current volumes, depending on domestic prices.

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Dramatic border scene of Colombian officials imposing 30% tariffs on halted Ecuadorian trucks amid trade retaliation, with flags, cargo, and power lines.
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Colombia imposes 30% tariffs on Ecuadorian products amid trade tensions

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Ecuador imposed a 30% tariff on Colombian imports due to border security concerns, prompting Colombia to retaliate with similar measures, including tariffs on 23 Ecuadorian tariff items and a temporary suspension of electricity exports. This escalation impacts bilateral trade worth billions of dollars and endangers jobs in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. Business groups urge restoring diplomatic dialogue to prevent further economic fallout.

The People's Republic of China announced safeguard measures for beef imports starting January 1, 2026, with country-specific quotas and 55% tariffs on excess volumes. These will affect Argentina, with limits of 511,000 tons in 2026, 521,000 in 2027, and 532,000 in 2028. Experts estimate the initial impact will be limited but could encourage market diversification.

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Building on China's safeguard measures announced January 1, 2026, which impose country-specific beef import quotas through 2028 with 55% tariffs on excess volumes (12.5% within limits), Argentina receives 511,000 tons—exceeding 2025 exports by about 100,000 tons—positioning it and Uruguay as key beneficiaries compared to Brazil and Australia. This eases concerns in Argentina's cattle sector, supporting growth without severe restrictions, though capping major expansions.

Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy published Resolution 40064 on January 22, 2026, suspending international electricity transactions with Ecuador in response to President Daniel Noboa's 30% tariffs. The measure takes effect from 6 PM that day and prioritizes national supply. Ecuador claims it has sufficient capacity to meet its energy demand without imports.

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Following Senate approval of tariffs on over 1,400 Asian products amid USMCA review tensions, Mexico published a decree on December 29, 2025, in the Official Gazette detailing 5% to 50% duties on imports from non-free trade agreement countries like China, effective January 1, 2026. Affecting goods such as clothing, toys, shampoo, and auto parts, the measures aim to protect domestic industry and generate 70 billion pesos in revenue with minimal 0.2% inflation impact.

China's exports rose 5.5 percent in 2025 to US$3.77 trillion, while imports stayed flat at US$2.58 trillion, yielding a record trade surplus of US$1.19 trillion. The performance beat forecasts despite trade headwinds, fueled by diversification into markets like Asean and Africa. Officials attribute the strong results to supportive policies and the country's industrial depth.

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Following the December 2025 decree imposing 5-50% tariffs on non-FTA imports, Mexico's measures particularly target the automotive sector, hiking duties on light vehicles to 50% and parts up to 50%. While aiming to protect national industry and generate over 70 billion pesos in revenue, the policy draws criticism for slowing Chinese EV tech adoption, though brands remain bullish on Mexico's market thanks to local plants.

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